Аuthor: M. Sitnicki, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Prof., ORCID ID: 0000-0002-0452-0404,
D. Kurinskyi, PhD student, ORCID ID: 0000-0001-9025-778X
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine

Annotation: The study evaluates the effects of the “grain agreement” to unblock grain exports during Russian aggression. The paper starts with an analysis of the existing export potential before the start of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. Wheat exports accounted for 12% of all world exports, barley accounted for 15–20%, and sunflower oil was over 50% of world exports. Seaport international shipping provided export of 5–6 million tons per month. In particular, the ports of Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Chornomorsk in 2021 ensured the transportation of 49.5 million grain out of 51,2 million tons. The structure of the export of grain crops from Ukraine to the countries of the world testified that the export of grain to Asia and Africa was 50–80%, and in the countries of Europe and the European Union, this indicator (except for Ireland) was 20–50%. To unblock three Black Sea ports in the south of Ukraine – “Odesa”, “Pivdennyy”, “Chornomorsk”, the document “Initiative for the safe transportation of grain and food products from Ukrainian ports”, or “grain agreement” was signed with the participation of official representatives of Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN, on July 22, 2022, in Istanbul.
Along with the significant advantages of the “grain agreement”, many Ukrainian farmers believe that all the positive aspects of unblocking the
export of grain by sea can be leveled already next year. Export volumes in 2023 may decrease by another third, and the reason here is not military
action but the lack of farmers ready to sow and harvest grain. After all, Ukraine’s agricultural business is currently on the verge of destruction. And
it is not only that many have to plant and harvest, literally, under shells. The main problem is that it became practically impossible to sell the harvest,
and even more so to trade profitably, in the war conditions.
Harvest storage is a serious problem because many elevators are either filled with last year’s leftovers or are in temporarily occupied territories.
A broad conclusion is made regarding the usefulness of the “grain agreement” for Ukraine in terms of the fact that it has a significant economic
effect and also confirms that such an agreement has demonstrated to the whole world that Ukraine is a reliable partner that, even in wartime, is trying to save the world from hunger.

Keywords: grain agreement, military aggression, grain export, “green corridor”, seaport, domestic grain market.

Received: 23/10/2022
1st Revision: 08/11/2022
Accepted: 01/12/2022

References (in Latin): Translation / Transliteration/ Transcription
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