In the article, we study the main approaches to the assessment of investment risk aiming to find the most appropriate method for estimation of risks of the investment in personnel development considering the human factor. We analyze the pros and cons of the existing methods. As a result, we suggest using the combination of expert and ranking methods as it provides wide opportunities for risk factors analysis in the sitiuation of data scarcity, in spite of the methods’ limitations of the subjectivity of expert judgments that can, however, be reduced by some of the advanced expert methods. Additionally, we consider the application of the analytical method that provides factor analysis and a foundation for the further risk management of these factors. The use of the statistical group of methods, although promising, is not feasible in practice yet because of the paucity of required data and difficulty of obtaining it from the companies which do not have incentives to provide such sensible information. Logically, the next step of the research should be a practical application of the listed methods, a test of the presented hypotheses, and an evaluation of the obtained results with the accent on the quality of risk indicators, data demands, utility and complexity of the methods’ practical application.
Keywords: risk assessment, investment, personnel development, risk of investment in personnel development, methods of risk assessment.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2015/170-5/9
References
1. Grishnova O.A. Rozvytok personalu yak investytsijnyj proekt: metodychni pidkhody do vyznachennya efektyvnosti,Grishnova O.A., Nebukin V.O., Regionalni aspekty rozvytku i rozmischennya produktyvnykh syl Ukrayiny, Zb. nauk. pr. Ternopil, Ekonomichna dumka, 2004. No 9. S. 15-19.
2. Dobrynin A.Y. Chelovecheskyi kapital v tranzitivnoj ekonomike: formirovanie, otsenka, effektivnost ispolzovania, Dobrynin A.Y., Dyatlov S.A., Tsyrenova E.D. Spb., Nauka, 2008. 309 s.
3. Zaklekta-Berestovenko O.S. Efektyvnist’ investycij u rozvytok personalu pidpryemstva: avtoref. dys. na zdobuttya nauk. stupenya kand. ekon. nauk: spets. 08.00.04 – ekonomika ta upravlinnya pidpryemstvamy (za vydamy ekonomichnoi diyalnosti), Zaklekta-Berestovenko O.S. K. KNU, 2008. 20 s.
4. Fitz-enz J. The ROI of Human Capital: Measuring the Economic Value of Employee Performance , Fitz-enz J. New York, AMACOM, 2006. 336 p. DOI: dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0001-2092(06)60696-0
5. Zakharova O.V. Upravlinnya investuvannyam u lyudskyj kapital: metodologiya, otsinka, planuvannya,
Zakharova O.V. Donetsk, DVNZ DonNTU, 2010. 378 s.
6. Koerselman K., Uusitalo R. The Risk and Return of Human Capital Investments. IZA Discussion Paper No. 7752, 2013. Available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2363239. DOI: dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2014.04.011
7. Bhattacharya M., Wright P. Recognizing Risk in Human Capital Investments: A Real Options Approach To Strategic Human Resource Management, Cornell University ILR School, 2000. Available at
http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1097&context=cahrswp.
8. Vitlinskyj V.V. Analiz, modelyuvannya ta upravlinnya ekonomichnym ryzykom: navch.-metod. posib., Vitlinskyj V.V. Verchenko P.I., K. KNEU, 2000. 292 s.
9. Ivchenko I.Y. Modelyuvannya ekonomichnyh ryzykiv i ryzykovyh sytuatsij: navch. posib., Ivchenko I.Y., K. Tsentruchbovoi literatury, 2007. 344 s.
10. Kaminskyj A.B. Ekonomichnyj ryzyk ta metody jogo vymiryuvannya: navch. posib., Kaminskyj A.B., K.
Vydavnychyj dim Kozaky, 2002. 120 s.
11. Luk’yanova V.V. Diagnostyka ryzyku diyal’nosti pidpryemstva, V.V. Luk’yanova., Khmel’nytskyj PP V.V. Koval’skyj,2007. 312 s.
12. Pikus R.V. Upravlinnya finansovymy ryzykamy: navch. posib., Pikus R.V. K. Znannya, 2010. 598 s.
13. Starostina A.O. Ryzyk-menedzhment: teoriya i praktyka, Starostina A.O., Kravchenko V.A., K. IVCz “Vydavnytstvo “Politekhnika”, 2004. 200 s.
14. Shegda A.V. Ryzyky v pidpryemnytstvi: otsinyuvannya ta upravlinnya: navch. posib., Shegda A.V.,
Golovanenko M.V., K. Znannya, 2008. 271 s.
15. Sharp U. Investytsii, Sharp U., Aleksander G., Bejli D., M. Infra-M, 2014. 1028 s.
16. Blank I.A. Investitsionnyi menedzhment: ucheb. Kurs, Blank I.A., K. Elga, Nika-Tsentr, 2001. 448 s.
17. Andreeva E.A. Problemy analiza i otsenki riskov investitsyonnykh proektov, Andreeva E.A., Kazakov M.B.,
Shukshyna I.I., Vestnik Saratovskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnycheskogo universiteta. 2008. Tom 1. No 4., S. 133-137.
18. Savchenko V.A. Upravlinnya rozvytkom personalu: navch. posibnyk., Savchenko V. A., K. KNEU, 2002., 351 s.
19. Momcheva A.M. Investytsii v personal yak chynnyk pidvyschennya efektyvnosti diyalnosti organizatsii ,
Efektyvna ekonomika. 2013. No 10. Available at: http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=2400.
20. Sсhukin B.M. Investuvannya: kurs lektsij, Sсhukin B.M. K. MAUP, 2004. 216 s.
21. Majorova T.V. Suchasni aspekty doslidzhennya zmistu ponyattya “investytsijnyj ryzyk”, Majorova T.V., Ekonomika ta pidpryemnytstvo: zb. nauk. prats’ molodykh uchenykh ta aspirantiv, M-vo osvity i nauky Ukrainy’, DVNZ “Kyiv. nats. ekon. universyteyt im. V. Get’mana” ; vidp. redaktor Dem’yanenko S.I. 2011. No 26. S. 159–169.
22. Ostankova L.A. Analiz, modelyuvannya ta upravlinnya ekonomichnymy ryzykamy: Navch. posib., Ostankova L.A., Shevchenko N.Y., K. Tsentr uchbovoyi literatury, 2011. 256 s.
23. Chernov V.B. Analiz riska kompleksnogo investitsyonnogo proekta, Chernov V.B., Upravlenie riskom. № 3, 2003. S. 50-64.
24. Matvijchuk A.V. Shtuchnyj intelekt v ekonomitsi: nejronni merezhi, nechitka logika, Matvijchuk A.V., K. KNEU, 2011. 439 s.