Modeling of human development index in the world

Authors: A. Stavytskyy, Dr. Habil. (Economics), Associate Prof., ORCID ID: 0000-0002-5645-6758; V. Sachko, ORCID ID: 0000-0003-2737-5868, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine

Annotation: The article considers the impact of human development on changes and transformations in economics and on the general development of the state for the countries of the European Union and Ukraine in the period from 1990 to 2018, as well as ways of its modeling using statistical and econometric methods. The analysis of the factors influencing the development of human capital made it possible to draw a conclusion about the direct dependence of changes in the economic and social spheres and the level of quality of life of the population. Innovative universities, namely University 4.0, also in turn play a significant role in shaping the new modern knowledge economy and the development of the state as a whole, influencing society through cognitive technologies. To determine the results, time series models and multiple and panel regression models were developed based on the data of the Human Development Index and other socio-economic indicators that determine the financial stability of the state and the level of its security and welfare. The obtained models were tested for adequacy, significance of coefficients, stability and possibility of their use in practice in order to determine the most optimal of them. After conducting the necessary tests and calculating the error of RMSPE, the best of all constructed and analyzed models was the Holt-Winters model. It is universal and can be used to further forecast the economic, social and demographic indicators of other regions of the world with possible adjustments of the main parameters and coefficients to obtain the most accurate results and use this model in practice. The study concluded with an analysis of the main areas of reform and recovery of the Ukrainian economy and the spheres of education and health care to achieve social progress in the country and increase its level of development.

Key words: economic development; human capital; time series models; regression analysis; forecasting.

Recei ved: 13/08/ 2020
1st Revision: 29/ 08/2020
Accepted: 14/09/ 2020



1. Fisher S., Dornbusch R., Schmalensee R., 2002. Economic theory. Unity Publishing Company.
2. Human Development Reports of United Nation Development Programme. URL:
3. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. URL:
4. Sen A., 1999. Development as Freedom. Oxford University Press. DOI:
5. Economic development. Economics Online. URL:
6. Todaro M., 2014. Economic development (Twelfth Edition). Pearson. URL:
7. Schumpeter J., 1926. Theory of economic development. URL: DOI:
8. Cooper R., John A., 2012. Economics – Theory Through Applications. European University Institute, Melbourne Business School. URL:
9. Stavytskyy, A., 2018. Economic security of Ukraine: strategy and support mechanisms. AgrarMedia Group, 464 p.
10. Osetskyy V., Kiril’chuk O., Savchuk N., 2020. Social innovations in education – drivers of human capital development. Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 1(208), pp. 42-48. DOI:
11. Van Den Berg H., 2012. Economic Growth and Development. World Scientific, 924 p. DOI:
12. Reinert E., 2014. How Rich Countries Got Rich … and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor. Tempora Publishing Company, 444 p.
13. Kuznets S., 2009. Economic development, the family, and income distribution selected essays. Cambridge University Press. DOI:
14. The Human Development Index. Economic and Social Research Council. URL:
15. Smith S., 2016. Determinants of Human Development Index: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis. National Institute of Bank
Management. URL: DOI:
16. Gorbunova O. N., Gegamyan M. A., 2014. HDI: calculation methodologies, indicators and indicators. URL:
17. Kenton W., 2019. What Is a Time Series? URL:
18. Five Statistical Methods For Forecasting Quantitative Time Series. Bista Solutions Inc. URL:
resources/blogs/5-statistical-methods-for-forecasting-quantitative-time-series/19. Altland H., 2012. Regression Analysis: Statistical Modeling of a Response Variable. Technometrics, 41(4), pp. 367-368. DOI:
20. Chernyak O. I., Komashko O. V., Stavytskyy A. V., Bazhenova O. V., 2009. Econometrics. Publishing and Polygraphic Center “Kyiv
University”, 359 p.
21. World Bank Open Data. URL:
22. Hsiao C., 2015. Analysis of Panel Data (Third Edition). Cambridge University Press. URL: DOI:
23. Human Development Data. URL:
24. COVID-19 and Human Development: Assessing the Crisis, Envisioning the Recovery (UNDP). URL:
25. Youtie J., Shapira P., 2008. Building an innovation hub: A case study of the transformation of university roles in regional technological and economic development. Research Policy, 37(8), pp. 1188-1204. DOI:


  • pdf 212-33-43
    File size: 584 kB Downloads: 1539