Authors: O. Krasota, PhD in Economics, Associate professor, ORCID ID: 0000-0001-8840-3119, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine
Annotation: The article examines the economic and social consequences of macroeconomic instability due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the new crisis. The further economic development of national economies is considered on the basis of four probable macroeconomic scenarios: V, U, W and L scenarios of post-crisis recovery. It is assumed that Ukraine and most other countries have a W recovery scenario. National governments are trying to find effective recipes for overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic and a new crisis.However, different public policy options give only a partial result. Therefore, reducing GDP fall may be conducted in a way other than through lockdowns and quarantine measures. The article substantiates the need to change the approach to restoring macroeconomic stability. The author considers social inclusion to become an effective instrument of restoring stability and raising living standards. Social inclusion involves ensuring equal access of all citizens to economic resources and services of the social sphere, the inclusion of all members of society in various spheres of public life. It includes giving all the society members equal rights regarding access to all resources and goods and involving people in economic, social, and political changes. This lays the groundwork not only for overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic and the new crisis but also for significantly reducing inequality and differentiating society, improving the welfare of the population, restoring macroeconomic stability.
Key words: Social Inclusion; Macroeconomic Stability; Coronavirus; Crisis; Social Exclusion.
1st Revision: 24/09/2020
1. Stability and Growth Pact. European Commission. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/eu-economic-governance-monitoring-prevention-correction/stability-and-growth-pact_en [Accessed 28 October 2020].
2. Grinspen A. (2010). Epokha potryaseniy. Problemy i perspektivy mirovoy finansovoy sistemy. M.: Yunayted Press, 550 р. (in Russian).
3. Krugman P. (2009). The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008. W.W. Norton Company Limited.
4. Blanchard O. (2009). The Crisis: Basic Mechanisms and Appropriate Policies. CESinfo Forum. № 10.
5. Schreiber B., Beken E., Zander K.-O., Bauer J. (2020). Actions for post-crisis supply chain recovery. Available at: https://www.adlittle.com/en/insights/viewpoints/actions-post-crisis-supply-chain-recovery [Accessed 30 October 2020].
6. Brik T., Obrizan M. (2020). Vplyv COVID-19 na rynok pratsi v rozrizi misʹkykh domohospodarstv Ukrayiny. Robochyy dokument. Available at: arxiv.org/abs/2007.15704 [Accessed 2 November 2020]. (in Ukrainian).
7. Sotsialʹnyy stres: naslidky i uroky karantynu. Available at: https://voxukraine.org/uk/sotsialnij-stres-naslidki-i-uroki-karantinu/ [Accessed 8 November 2020].(in Ukrainian).
8. Silver H. (1994). Social Exclusion and Social Solidarity: Three Paradigms. International Labour Review. Vol. 133. Р. 531–578. Available at: http://www. socialinclusion.org.np/userfiles/file/Social_Exclusion_and_Solidarity_by_Hillary_SILVER.pdf. [Accessed 30 October 2020].
9. Better Policies, Better Outcomes: Promoting the Mainstreaming of Social Inclusion. Combat Poverty Agency. Available at: https://www.drugsandalcohol.ie/6341/1/combat_poverty_2006_AnnualReport.pdf [Accessed 30 October 2020].
10. Joint Report on Social Protection and Social Inclusion 2010. European Commission. Available at: https://op.europa.eu/en/ publication-detail/-/publication/b42c9026-354e-4224-9990-206df01dbe3a [Accessed 29 October 2020].
11. National Action Plan for Social Inclusion, 2004-2006. Republic of Cyprus. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/employment_ social/social_inclusion/docs/nap_incl_2004_cy_en.pdf [Accessed 28 October 2020].
12. Percy-Smith J. (2000). Policy Responses to Social Exclusion: Towards Inclusion? Open University Press, Buckingham, Philadelphia.
13. Rawal N. (2008). Social Inclusion and Exclusion: A Review. Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology. Vol. 2. P. 161–180.
14. Social Inclusion – Opening the Door to a Better Scotland. The Scottish Office. Available at: https://books.google.com.ua/ books/about/Social_Inclusion.html?id=uQgFMwEACAAJ&redir_esc=y [Accessed 30 October 2020].
15. IGI Global. Social inclusion. Available at: https://www.igi-global.com/dictionary/independent-living-support-disabled-elderly/27360 [Accessed 30 October 2020].
16. Europe 2020. A Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth. Brussels, 3.3.2010 COM (2010) 2020. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eu2020/pdf/COMPLET%20EN%20BARROSO%20%20%20007%20-%20Europe%202020%20-%20EN%20version.pdf [Accessed 29 October 2020].
17. Hujo K., Yi I. (2015). Social Policy and Inclusive Development. United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, 432 p.
18. Radionova I. (2020). Funktsiya sotsialʹnoyi polityky ta sotsialʹna inklyuziya v poyasnenni zahalʹnoyi ekonomichnoyi rivnovahy. Visnyk Kyyivsʹkoho natsionalʹnoho universytetu imeni Tarasa Shevchenka. Seriya “Ekonomika”. № 1(208). Р. 49-55. [Accessed 17 October 2020]. (in Ukrainian).
19. COVID-19. Socio-Economic impact. Available at: https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/covid-19-pandemic-response/socio-economic-impact-of-covid-19.html [Accessed 30 October 2020].
20. Prohrama stymulyuvannya ekonomiky dlya podolannya naslidkiv COVID-19: ekonomichne vidnovlennya. (2020). Kabinet Ministriv Ukrayiny. Available at: www.kmu.gov.ua [Accessed 25 October 2020]. (in Ukrainian).
21. Lucas R. (1993). Making a Miracle. Econometrica, vol. 61, issue 2, P. 251–272.
22. Popova T.L. (2013). Sotsialʹne zaluchennya: kontseptualʹni pidkhody do vyznachennya. Derzhavne upravlinnya: teoriya ta praktyka. № 1. Available at: http://academy.gov.ua/ej/ej17/PDF/16.pdf [Accessed 17 October 2020]. (in Ukrainian).
23. Atkinson A. B. (2010). Analysing and Measuring Social Inclusion in a Global Context. United Nations. New York. Available at: http://www.un. org/esa/socdev/publications/measuring-social-inclusion.pdf [Accessed 17 October 2020].