Кривая филлипса: анализ теории и практики

Авторы: K. Лоулер, проф., ORCID iD 0000-002-3409-6755, Университет Кувейта, Кувейт; A. Москардини, приглашенный проф.,
ORCID iD 0000-0003-4951-0848, Университет Кардифа, Великобритания; И. Павленко, проф., ORCID iD 0000-0002-5687-778X, Варшавский университет, Польша; T. Власова, приглашенный науч. сотр., ORCID iD 0000-0002-5000-6756, Университет Нортумбрии, Великобритания.

Аннотация: Представлено подробное исследование кривой Филлипса по мере ее развития со времени классической работы Филлипса 1958 года. Подробное изложение включает в себя эволюцию аргументации с использованием экономической теории и системного мышления для разработки базовых моделей генерирования данных. Показано, что они лежат в основе обратной связи между инфляцией и безработицей в экономике. В терминах интерпретации кривой Филипса рассмотрены острые политические потребности, обусловленные Великой инфляцией 1970-х годов и Великой рецессией после 2008 года. В работе выдвинута гипотеза о том, что экономические идеи имеют важное значение в контексте исторических эпох при сопутствующих политических императивах, от которых эти же самые идеи впадают в спячку, когда кризисы ослабевают. Такой экскурс в историю подразумевается в последних исследованиях кривых Филлипса. Особенно полезен вывод об актуальности системного мышления и системной динамики для интерпретации вопросов, связанных с проблемами агрегирования в макроэкономике, включая причинно-следственные связи инфляции и безработицы. В работе сделан вывод о том, что, похоже, кривая Филипса жива, просто она пребывала в спячке. Определение кривой Филипса требует широкого диапазона изменчивости неагрегированных потоков данных. Это позволяет проявляться отрицательному углу наклона кривой, в ином случае наклон кривой Филлипса устремляется в вертикальной плоскости. Эндогенный банкинг и инфляционное таргетирование усиливают этот эффект, который очевиден с точки зрения системного мышления или динамики.

Ключевые слова: кривая Филиппса, бизнес-циклы, экономические проблемы, системная динамика.

Received: 08/08/2020
1st Revision: 10/08/2020
Accepted: 08/09/ 2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2020/211-4/2

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